Tuesday should be the day!

Trading action for Tuesday it looks like we could get the up open I'm expecting as I type the futures are trading up 13 points higher from our 700 entry yesterday. Even if we do happen to dip in the morning tomorrow, I feel its absolutely nuts to short this level. We have been down 10 of the last 11 days. As you can see from today's dip buying action from our entries there is just not the panic in the market that scares the bulls out and to be honest the oversold readings are way to extreme to give me any reason to think about shorting the market from here. So we really need to be ready tomorrow and expect the upside to be the way to go. Buy dips all day!

Who says you cant buy this market?

Right ON! Game plan worked great as I suggested. The market opened past the 726 pivot, so that was your key to look for the next lower which was the 715 area. The market hit this area a few minutes before the open and bounced a nice 5-6 points for us to scalp some profits. The next area was the 700 area and we got nice launch higher in the final minutes of trading for 5 points. So Hey.. 10 possible points on long side in a gap and go to the downside all day long. Good Stuff!
Personally I'm holding a few contracts from 700 as it was really slow and dull to the downside today and we could very well get a pop tomorrow morning. Back tonight with some thoughts. Cheers!

Monday

I had to laugh as I find it impossible to actually scroll back far enough to get a decent chart for analysis tonight. The markets close on Friday was not pretty to say the least. I Globex right now for the S&P 500 Emini right is under some pressure as we are at my next support level of 726 area. If your short ..Good for you but I just have a hard time to short this low and oversold. I much rather buy dips for bounce scalps til we get the turn and rally on volume that is breath taking. I have a feeling we are very close to that. Some suppport areas to watch are 726, 714, 700 and 688. I personally will be buying at each level for quick scalps til this market puts in a pivot low and can close positive two days in a row. Caution as we enter this period that is writing history as we speak.

735... The Ticket!

The morning gap down gave us the suggested buy target 735 for a bounce in the market to play for a scalp. The bounce was fairly orderly as we pushed up into the first hour or two and then sold off again. The selling seems to be the theme as you get the target to buy into and sell off after a reasonable 10-20 point move. No trust for sure holding for longer term so far in this market.
We had a nice week of profits and would you know it all from the long side in a hugely down % on indexes in general. The pivots never lie! Thanks for dropping by and well talk with you Sunday night.

Friday

We are sitting right at support 754 area as illustrated above. We have some big economic news pre market Friday morning which could move the market. There has been a lot of talk about the 741 being the be all end all for this market to hold up. I would look a little lower possible 735 to be a better support area for a bounce if we do happen to tag it. The spot I feel would be good for at least a bounce for some profits. The darning could try and hold for more but caution to you in this market. A break of 735 and things could get a little ugly and might follow through into Monday-Tuesday. There is also a slight chance of recover and if we do get up and above 775 again I would consider swinging market again.

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775 a No Go...and Down We Go!

The suggested game plan last night was pretty simple. We either get above 775 and hold or its down we go! The opening run today into the first hour seemed very bullish to me, but it was quickly resisted and sold off from there and as you can see steadily sold off into the close. The market seems determined to go lower as every rally is hit with selling. Talk with you later!

775 ..Or we go down!

We have tried and tried to get above and hold 775 for 6 times now in last week. Enough is enough we either do it on Thursday and have some follow through to the upside or we will be taking out the 754, 741 and looking at 710-690 before we can look at this market on the long side. Our entry from 755 swing has been up and down, all around for a couple of days and its time for the upside to go!. Trade well and at most use a 753 stop or break even if we get the decline tomorrow taking us out. Lets hope for upside and recovery!

Are We There Yet?

Wow is all I can say! They sure are not making it easy are they. We had a flat open today and a retest of the 754 pivot talked about last night and then a launch higher. But it gets better! Then just when things looked good we get another retest of 754 and again holds above on a closing basis and up we launch again to the important 778 area suggested. This area was an important decision area for the bulls, but unfortunately the energy level it took to rally the markets all day was spent and we rolled over to 764 by the close. Ahhh! Will we ever hold and rally! More thoughts later tonight! Cheers!

Wednesday...Ok Bulls Your UP!

Looking toward Wednesdays trading action we are long a swing from the 755 pivot on the Emini S&P 500. As we all know the key to this bounce to be anything useful will be continuation from todays rally in which we will create a pivot low. I would be a buyer on dips in this market and will be using a break 754 as a stop on swing position. Looking at some goals of upside continuation I would be watching for a break of 778 to bring in more upside to 783, 798 and 801. I have a feeling some of the bears will be looking at the 800 area again to enter the market...so a great profit taking area if hit this week at all. Good luck and trade well!

Rock and Roll!

The start today was a little slow as traders waiting around during Fed testimony today. We traded back and forth until 1:30ET time when we created a nice Head and Shoulders inverse intra day and it was off to the races. A nice steady climb and we never looked back as we finished a few ticks off the highs of the day. Great day today as our swing from 755 ( funny actually was the breakout point of the H&S) recovered today and we are nicely in the positive.
Going forward we need to see confirmation if this rally is for real. Is it just a one day event to work off oversold conditions or a change of character for a bounce in this market? Back late tonight with some market thoughts for tomorrow. Again great day and thanks for dropping by! Cheers!

Rally Time Tuesday?

A depressing chart above , just putting into perceptive the decline we are in. A huge M pattern is formed from now and the lows we are currently trading are in 1997 Era.... WOW!!!
Well we have sold off some 7 days in a row and have had no change in character to believe any rally will hold. |Everyone has been sold off into. Will Tuesday be the day we push down to new lows and recover? Or simply take off and actually finish strong!. As suggested last night , have bought the dip in this market. Currently long form 755 area as a swing for what should be an incredible upside reversal. Also I have purchased some April index Calls as well. As you can tell I'm locked and ready for the upside! Now we need the market to help us out! LOL....
Rally Time! Good luck and trade well.

Monday... Buy Weakness!

Huge volume on Friday to complete Option Expiry. The suggested pivot 754 was close to the bottom of the selling pressure Friday and as we all know there reversal came hard and fast. I would use at this time any weakness tomorrow to get long. A suggested safer more bang for your buck strategy might be to use the NASDAQ futures ( NQ) instead of the S&P 500 Emini's as tech I believe is some what aside from the financial pressure will be an out performer going forward. Same strategy on buying any weakness tomorrow morning on a possible little bit of option expiry hang over. Good luck and trade well.

Financials Anyone?

The 3x financials (FAS) is a great and cheap way to get exposure to the possible financial reversal coming in the future. This ETF traded at a all time low breaking below 4 bucks before violently reversing on Friday. Is this a pivot low? Look for continuation going forward and follow through for clarification. Great risk reward going forward. I picked some up on the break of 4 bucks Friday.

Bounce Time!

The suggested buy the market on a 20-30 point drop worked to a tee today. The close yesterday was the 779 area on the Emini S&P 500. We had the scenario of the gap down off the open and ran down into the 754 pivot and reversed strongly into the afternoon. A slight pullback in the last 45 minutes but over all up nicely on the day!. Have a great weekend and thanks for dropping by. Talk with you Sunday Night.

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Time To Buy

We'll kind of a weird situation today on the Emini S&P 500 futures. A ton of downside on all indexes including DOW, NASDAQ and S&P but the futures are flat??? My thoughts going forward is the market is a buy going forward. Either we take off tomorrow right off the open or we gap down big tomorrow morning and reverse to the upside. On a gap down I would be a buyer 20-30 points lower. Support levels are 769,754 and 741. The sentiment feel is way to negative and everyone is looking at the November lows on the S&P 741. Good Luck and Trade well.

Anyone Bullish?

That's the real question. I frequent several chats, blogs and read a ton of emails and articles daily. I honestly have not read one piece on anyone thinking the market could turn up from here. Every single thing written about is how the market needs to test the lows...it has to test the lows! The argument was appealing last week when we had an incredible number of calls in the market as the Government was going to save the day. Now that we have really sold off, that number of calls has quickly been converted to a huge amount of puts. Gang... the financial world and institutions do not want to pay off those puts. They will be looking ahead and in my option reversing this market and moving back the other way. Anyway that's my thoughts. Yes we can always go lower (test the lows!) but my gut says other way when the world says down. I will be buying the market tomorrow with a stop below 764. Good luck!

Yesterdays Lows Hold for Trade

The suggested waiting for confirmation of yesterdays sell off seemed to be the right way to trade today. Often the institutions will breach the lows from yesterday, take the stops out and reverse the market. Well they ran the market down to important 778-782 area and reversed the market higher into the 1st hour. The Emini then traded in a choppy random range before again selling to the lows by the close. Back with Thursdays thoughts late tonight. Thanks for dropping by!

Wednesday

Hi Gang! sorry for the late post but I'm taking on some other things a few nights a week. I believe we could see a light rally tomorrow as we seem to have some anticipation of details on mortgages. I have given you on a chart below with the levels to watch for tomorrow. Confirmation at this point needs to show up on the downside or we could find ourselves reversing up again. This week is option expiry so expect the volatility and whipsaw to continue. Also another important pivot to watch is the 80 even number on the SPY today. It was a wall or resistance all day Tuesday and a close above that level on a 10 min. chart would push us a up for a nice trade. I suggest still to remain cautious, small and intra day on all trades as we are one announcement away from a reversal gap that could look similar to last Thursdays final 30 minutes. Cheers!

Yikes!! Gap below 805 and down we go!

The suggested market scenario if we took out 805 to be bearish worked well!. The market for the most part was after an initial sell off into the 10ET time frame was side ways, choppy trading til Obama's signing of the stimulus Bill at around 2:40-3ET. The market tried to stage a bounce of sorts but the over all trend was down and remained that way into the close. Hope you were able to catch some profits today! Back later tonight with Wednesdays Thoughts.

Tuesday 805 Holds or Bust Lower

The scenario of the important 805 area holding on the S&P Emini in my option is very important. One thing that keeps me thinking that we may in fact hold this level is I actually can't find one bullish piece of news, blog, article all weekend giving any bias or thought to any possible move up in this market, everything is negative! ( The bailout is Hated by Republicans, Asia was terrible Monday trading, The futures are lower). Man you would think the world is over and we should all just give up. The bailout was voted in by the senate on Friday evening. I have a feeling the there could be some clarity given to bank assets and mortgage foreclosures very soon. I have to believe they are aware of the reactions since they have addressed the details very minimally last week and have had nothing but lower stock prices after the fact. Maybe I'm just an internal optimist, but buy the market as long as we hold 805. Good luck and Happy trading!